ANALYSIS: The Tories’ struggles to pass laws

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There’s been a lot of scrambling.

In the last 12 months, the Higgs government has abruptly backed away from laws it wanted to pass – or did pass and then realized it included a mistake – at least three times.

The first, last June, was a proposed overhaul of the Education Act. The changes sparked complaints that it would hurt inclusion and strip New Brunswick’s seven district education councils of their power. Eventually, the government put the move on indefinite hold, saying it needed more time to consult with parents.

The second, which was passed in December, unintentionally created a gap in child protection laws that lasted 43 days before the courts retroactively closed it, ruling the gap never actually existed because the government didn’t mean to make the mistake.

And more recently, there was the proposed “compassionate intervention act,” which sought to force “severely” addicted homeless people into rehabilitation. That law, which was set to be introduced in the legislature this month, is now on ice because the government says it needs time “to make sure we get it right.”

Beyond bungling or delaying changes to laws, the Progressive Conservatives have endured several other about-faces and unexplained delays in the last couple of years.

They include months of now-aborted early election speculation from Premier Blaine Higgs, which cost taxpayers about $1.7 million, an ongoing non-response to a 2022 report on systemic racism, and a year-long lag on a mandated 10-year review of the Official Languages Act.

When the Education Act changes were iced, the minister responsible for the file, Bill Hogan said he’d inherited a law “that didn’t make a lot of sense.” He also admitted that “there was a bit of speed involved,” and that the government needed to “just slow it down a bit.”

He denied rumours of internal dissent about the proposed changes, but admitted that some “unfortunate misconceptions” had taken control of the narrative.

At the time, Liberal Leader Susan Holt said it was a “great example” of the government’s “incompetence.”

“They can’t put forth a legislative agenda, they can’t properly prepare a bill. They clearly don’t consult, so they can’t get their own legislation passed. It’s a failure of leadership,” she said.

Brunswick News asked two political scientists for their thoughts.

What does it mean?

The first question Brunswick News asked Mount Allison University political scientist Mario Levesque, and Jamie Gillies, his counterpart at St. Thomas University, was whether the trouble surrounding the three pieces of legislation was just a series of unfortunate coincidences, or a sign that government is rushing through its agenda before the fall election.

“It’s likely a combination of things, including them rushing and not thinking through things as much as they should,” Levesque said in an email.

“So, here, they get part way and then realize, ‘Uh, oh, this is a lot more complicated then we thought.’ Then they either try and ram it through anyway to say they achieved something for their base, or back off and say, ‘We are listening to people.’

“Part of the issue is the controversial nature of some of the changes, such as the compassionate intervention act, which is anything but compassionate.”

It is something bigger, Gillies said, “and is actually indicative of many governments that have been around for a couple of elections and had advisory turnover, especially within the premier’s office.”

“The newer advisors and ministers often fail to grasp complex policy problems and offer simplistic and not well thought-out legislation. They then rush an agenda that does not have any real policy capacity, and that is what has been happening with the Higgs government of late,” Gillies said in an email.

Next, the pair were asked whether what’s happened is a normal occurrence in New Brunswick politics.

“It is a regular occurrence in New Brunswick,” Gillies said. “The Graham, Alward and Gallant governments all backed away from signature pieces of legislation. Higgs has done this a number of times as well.”

Levesque, meanwhile, said “it depends.”

“This government (their strategy here) tends to try things out and see how far it can go or how much it can get and then moves on to another issue,” he said.

“So, it is a bit like throwing as much as you can at the wall to see what sticks. For sure this is not a comprehensive policy approach, and will make things harder going forward in that much work will be needed to fix things afterwards.”

Finally, the experts were asked whether what’s happened will have any impact on the election.

“Some of the backtracking is due to the election, such as with the compassionate care act. The government sees how controversial it has become, so they back off,” Levesque said.

“If the (Tories) win another majority, they will then bring it back to pass it. You will likely have noticed that the government has been trying to ‘clean’ things up heading into an election such as not appealing the (Dr. John) Dornan settlement etc. Such issues are all things that can blow up in an election, so they want to neutralize them as much as possible ahead of time.”

There is danger for the government, Gillies warned.

“The problem for the Higgs government is what political scientists refer to as a lack of ‘policy competence,'” he said. 

“Their proposed solutions and legislation fail to tackle the problem, fail to generate enthusiasm, or do not address the larger issues with which people are struggling. So these mistakes and missteps build and gradually become the dominant narrative for the government. 

“This has happened to the Trudeau Liberals and it is happening to the Higgs government here in New Brunswick.”